Carlo Pescio - blog

Maybe I've been around customers like Technogym and Mywellness a little too much :-), but I enjoy running over the hills around here. Today I've also met a couple of deers; they were really curious and we looked at each other for a while before they disappeared into the woods.
I like that hyper-oxygenated state I enter after a while: I've got quite a few good ideas while running, and now I always bring a tiny notebook and a pencil with me. The mind tends to wander a lot, and if I don't jot down a few key points, there is a good chance I'll forget everything on the way home.
Today I've literally seen :-) a new approach that could help me solve a difficult problem with probability density. I've been tinkering with it for almost a year now, and I'm getting closer to a solution, but I'm still too far from something I can use in the real world. My aim here is to bring together a de-facto approach in estimation ("expert estimation", that is, the expert is "guessing" the effort), some research from Simula Labs in Norway (see the excellent papers from Magne Jorgensen on improving the realism of expert estimation), and statistical techniques, like good old 3-Points PERT. There is still a lot of work ahead, but as Thomas Edison said, genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration. And that brings back the idea of running :-)).